The World Energy Outlook 2025: Key Developments for the Energy Market

The latest World Energy Outlook 2025 (WEO 2025) from the International Energy Agency (IEA) provides a comprehensive analysis of global energy trends up to 2050. The report examines the balance between energy security, affordability, and sustainability – issues that are currently shaping the energy landscape.

Below, we have summarised the most important findings.

Gas: A stable bridge energy with a growing LNG supply.

Gas remains a core component of energy supply. The report forecasts a significant oversupply of LNG exports by 2030 – up to 300 billion cubic metres of new capacity, mainly from the United States, Qatar, and Canada. This is likely to result in lower prices and improved supply security.

At the same time, risks persist from methane emissions as well as geopolitical and weather-related disruptions. In ambitious climate scenarios, gas must be increasingly combined with carbon capture and storage (CCUS) technology if it is to be considered low-emission in the long term. In Europe, LNG will continue to be the dominant import source.

Decarbonisation: The Path to a More Sustainable Energy Supply

Global CO₂ emissions are set to reach a new high of 38 gigatonnes in 2024. However, if announced measures and political restrictions are consistently implemented, emissions could fall below 30 gigatonnes by 2050. The majority of CO₂ emission reductions will be accounted for by renewable energies, nuclear energy and efficiency measures.

In Europe, dependence on energy imports is increasing, while grid bottlenecks and extreme weather pose growing blackout risks. CCUS technologies and methane reduction are gaining importance to make fossil fuels compatible with climate targets.

Hydrogen: Key for Hard-to-Decarbonise Sectors

Low-emissions hydrogen is positioned as a solution for industries that are difficult to electrify – such as chemicals, refineries, shipping, or aviation. By 2035, it could cover 35% of industrial hydrogen needs, and by 2050 up to 10% of global final energy consumption.

Costs remain high at present but are falling due to scale effects and policy support (e.g., the EU Breakthrough Agenda). Hydrogen is increasingly seen as a complement to electrification and CCUS.

Transformation of the Energy Market

The global energy market is changing: the focus of growth in energy consumption is shifting increasingly towards Asia, Africa and Latin America. Electricity is becoming the dominant energy source. In most scenarios, coal and oil production will peak around 2030 and gas production around 2035.

Renewables are growing strongly, but the expansion of power grids and storage is lagging behind. Investments in resilient infrastructure to counter cyber risks and extreme weather are becoming ever more critical.

Emissions Trading and Affordability

Emissions trading systems and certificates for low-carbon energy carriers are gaining further importance – often linked to CCUS and methane abatement. Affordability remains a central priority: favourable LNG prices due to oversupply can help, while rising electricity demand and grid constraints are pushing costs up in some regions.

In the long term, a net-zero pathway is economically more attractive than continued high dependence on fossil imports.

Conclusion

The World Energy Outlook 2025 illustrates an energy market in transition: between short-term supply security and long-term decarbonisation.

At SEFE Energy, we actively support our customers through this phase – with flexible gas and electricity contracts, expertise in hydrogen and decarbonisation, and tailored strategies for stable and future-proof energy supply.

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